20241209_HOPE

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Good evening! I just wrapped up a three-day trip in the West Cost (SF/LA) and had some great conversations with clients. Clients were most interesting in talking about how to position for this volatile and deteriorating backdrop, just like we wrote about here. Overall, our bearish views are...

The market is struggling between a rock (weakening leading economic indicators) and a hard place (hawkish central banks). While the market has given back a chunk of the gains from the summer’s “No-Pivot” Bear Market Rally (see Which One Of These Fed Pivots Doesn’t Belong??), we continue to see...

Good evening! Wanted to shoot out a quick note this evening on recent market action. We continue to see equities as a poor risk-reward, and now firmly believe we’ve seen the top of this 4th bear market rally. As we’ve mentioned in the past, bear market rallies grow larger and longer as a bear...

Today’s note touches on two key takeaways: Two-year yields are highly correlated to S&P 500 P/Es today. Yields are back to the highs, suggesting the P/E of the market should be closer to 15x, or two points lower. We’ve yet to have a proper bear market, defined by falling EPS AND P/E. Unlike...

Yesterday’s note (see link below chart) sparked up conversations with clients – this may be the clearest example of why this bear market rally won’t turn into a new bull market (in the near term). The Fed HAS NOT pivoted and that’s very clear to the bond market, and becoming increasingly clear to...

Equities offer a terrible risk/reward today in our view. When a problem goes away, it’s fair to assume that the market should rebound (all else equal). But what about when the equity market believes a problem has gone away but the bond market and the data don’t support that view? (Hint: What goes...

Good afternoon! In today’s note, I am going to comment on the recent headlines of how a 50% retracement in a bear market has ALWAYS began a new bull market. While that may be historically accurate (using the SPX), I am going to point out a HUGE risk to that today, and why I think we are about to...

In today’s note we will discuss three key important points about the equity market and housing … Stocks do not bottom without confirmation from leading housing data. History is CLEAR and CONSISTENT. Weakening Housing Data Portends: 1) lower PMIs, EPS Revisions & Tighter lending standards; 2)...