The Three Cycles: PMIs, CPI and Claims
I am running out but wanted to send this chart your way – I wanted to address, again, the narrative that peak CPI will be the end of the bear market. In the past, market bottoms have only occurred at a peak in CPI when PMIs and Claims simultaneously began to improve as well. Too many people are...
What’s Next After The Lower-Rates Relief Rally?
Happy Friday Daniel, We have high conviction in our views and have held off on the “get very defensive” phase of our market-cycle call. For the past few months, we’ve recommended growth stocks > cyclicals as our #1 recommendation. That’s playing out very nicely, but it’s time to think about...
Your Local Bank Is Now Joining The Tightening Party
Good evening!!! While everybody is focused on the END of Fed tightening, your local bank is just beginning to tighten lending standards. We have central banks because banks tighten lending standards as the economy weakens. In the first chart below, we’ve plotted the ISM New Orders Index (48)...
Consensus: It’s A New Bull Market?
Had to share this chart with you ..."new bull market" news has skyrocketed. We would be thinking about trimming rather than adding here. Bear market rallies are violent, and kill bulls and bears alike as we all know. We continue to prefer quality growth stocks if you are long or long/short. Avoid...
ISM Preview; Growth Leadership Continues; July Skies
Happy Sunday!! We’re expecting the “is it the bottom?” debate to only heat up for the rest of 2022. To reiterate our view – we do not think we’ll see the bottom in the broader indices until we’re closer to leading economic indicators bottom sometime next year. For the past several months, we’ve...
This Isn’t 1982
I've received 3 emails from clients this morning, and a handful of tweets directed towards me that there is another bullish strategist talking about how this is a repeat of 1982 and that the market is going to skyrocket from here, recouping the entire bear market in a few months. While I don't pay...
Is This The Bottom?
The debate about the future direction of the market is heating up. We've now seen 4 bear market rallies. One of the observations that we've made in recent months is that bear market rallies grow larger as the bear market grows older. Whether the Fed is close to being finished tightening, or they...
So You’re Telling Me There Is A Chance?!
This is the first chart I’ve seen this year that shows that the data can improve from here, at least relative to expectations. Some of you may remember this chart when we’ve published in years past. Will economic surprises begin to rebound? Will markets react positively? Maybe!? Our...
Fed: Here’s What We’ll Be Watching Today …
Today is Fed day – as a reminder Roberto & Benson will be hosting a webinar TODAY at 2:15pm ET to discuss the Fed LIVE! Click Here to Register. In today’s morning meeting, macro salesperson Jay Glickson asked us how the Fed’s decision will impact our outlook – will 75bp vs 100bp matter? We...
Time For A “Fav 5” Update
It’s nearly the end of the month, a good time to take a look at our “Fav 5” LEI index and it’s relationship to other cyclical areas of the market. As we’ve laid out in detail this year, we expect leading economic indicators (PMIs, NAHB, NFIB, Confidence, Housing Starts, etc.) to continue...